2024 Housing Market Predictions: Will Prices Drop?

"I'd characterize the housing market today as boring and likely to stay pretty unexciting for the foreseeable future. Existing home sales are on pace to be at their lowest total since 2009, during the Great Recession. Prices have rebounded over the past few months, and are increasing on a year-over-year basis, but very modestly (1-2%). Inventory is inching up slightly from nearly historic lows, but still down between 40-50% from the same time in 2019, when we last had a relatively normal number of homes for sale."

"The national real estate market presents a mixed bag of scenarios. Home prices have seen a steady climb, reflecting both the increased demand and the undeniable value people place on homeownership. Mortgage rates, while still low historically, have risen in recent months, causing some hesitations among potential home buyers. Inventory levels have been somewhat tight, especially in sought-after areas, driving up competition. There's more of a wait-and-watch sentiment now."

"The national real estate market is experiencing several noteworthy trends. We've observed a slight decline in home prices on a national level. This is in line with seasonal patterns and is not indicative of a long-term trend. Additionally, mortgage rates have been rising as a measure to stabilize inflation, which is impacting buyer affordability. Inventory levels have continued to decrease, largely because many current homeowners are holding onto their properties due to lower interest rates."

"Market activity is cooling due to eye-popping home prices and interest rates. But even though the national average 30-year mortgage rate has jumped to a nearly 23-year high, buyer interest remains relatively high and the housing market is still competitive for prospective buyers."

"Home prices will likely drop 5-10% nationally in 2024 as demand softens further. Affordability issues, economic uncertainty, and moderating investor activity will weigh on prices. Of course, the exact amount prices will reduce will depend on local market conditions and employment trends."

"Home prices will rise in 2024. With the demand still being high and supply low, this will drive up home values, especially if rates come down, which will increase demand even more."

"Housing prices nationally will level off on an average basis, with some markets slightly rising, some dropping, all based on local demand and that local demand's local economic conditions."

"I expect house prices to rise around 3% to 4%. But at some point in 2024, I see a slowdown in price growth. The slowdown will be due to a combination of factors such as rising interest rates, an increase in the supply of homes, a decrease in demand, and affordability challenges for buyers. That said, I'm not anticipating a drop in prices nationwide."

"Given the current trajectory and economic indicators, I anticipate a moderate rise in housing prices nationally. The reason is consistent demand, especially in suburban and exurban regions. The urban exodus, sparked by remote work trends, hasn't entirely plateaued. Expect prices overall to rise as supply tries to catch up with demand."

"Home prices will probably rise slightly in 2024, perhaps by 2-3% as demand continues to outpace supply. However, this will not be universally true; some formerly high-flying markets like the Bay Area in California, Austin, and Phoenix could see prices continue to fall, while cities in the Southeastern states may see prices rise more quickly."

"I anticipate that national housing prices will continue to experience a mild drop in 2024. This decline is expected to be a result of seasonal fluctuations, similar to what we've seen historically."

"Sometime in the first half of next year we will see slightly lower, but still elevated, mortgage rates. As the economy decelerates, rates should go down. At some point in 2024, the Fed will start lowering rates as they see inflation decline and unemployment increase. Rates will still be high enough that home buyers continue to be challenged by affordability, and sellers will still be reluctant to give up their low existing mortgage rates."

"Mortgage rates are likely to decline, slowly but steadily, over the year. This decline should begin once the Federal Reserve confirms that it's done raising the Fed Funds rate for this cycle. But borrowers shouldn't expect to see mortgage loans with 4% interest rates; it's more likely that rates will gradually work their way down from 7%, and possibly end next year just below 6%."

"Rates could fluctuate in 2024 based on inflation and Fed policy, but I expect rates to average in the 5-7% range. A strong labor market and slowing inflation could lead to rate cuts in the second half of 2024, but higher rates of at least 6% seem likely to persist throughout 2024."

"Supply will rise slightly in 2024. Those who have been postponing selling — especially because they don't want to give up their current low mortgage rates — may finally need to move, plus natural market churn will occur. However, no drastic change will flood the market with inventory, and buyer demand will remain strong in 2024."

"Supply will gradually rise in 2024 as profit margins drop and sellers are less rushed. But new construction is lagging, keeping inventory tight for the long term. I expect to see 5-10% more listings nationally in 2024."

"New home inventory is likely to increase a little bit next year as home builders ramp up activity to meet market demand; but the inventory of existing homes for sale will probably be flat as homeowners remain locked in by low interest rates on their current mortgages. Almost 70% of mortgage loans today have an interest rate of 4% or lower. We're unlikely to see many of those homeowners list their properties for sale until rates drop significantly, probably to 5.5% or lower."

"I see some increases in housing inventory in 2024 due to rising interest rates, affordability challenges for buyers, and a decrease in demand. But in general, the national housing shortage will continue through the end of the 2020s. Due to the estimated pent-up demand for housing, it will take time for the nation's builders to find suitable land, skilled labor, and materials to create a much-needed supply."

"Housing inventory is anticipated to continue its decline into 2024. The primary factor contributing to this trend is the reluctance of existing homeowners to sell. This reluctance to move is reducing the overall supply of homes."