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MORTGAGES·The Mortgage Reports·May 2, 2024

How to get a home equity loan with bad credit

Featured expert:Ralph DiBugnara·Article by Paul Centopani · The Mortgage Reports · April 11, 2024
Mortgage rate forecast May 2024 housing market expert predictions

Mortgage Rate Forecast for Next Week (April 15–19)

Mortgage interest rates continued their April ascent, growing for the second week in a row. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose from 6.82% on April 4 to 6.88% on April 11, according to Freddie Mac.

"Mortgage rates increased this week on higher than expected inflation data. The U.S. economy has been resilient despite high interest rates. These strong inflation numbers will also likely delay any potential Federal Reserve rate cuts."

— Orphe Divounguy, Senior Macroeconomist, Zillow Home Loans

Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in May?

Mortgage rates fluctuated significantly in 2023, with the average 30-year fixed rate going as low as 6.09% on Feb. 2 and as high as 7.79% on Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac. With the economy possibly heading into a recession, we may have already seen the peak of this rate cycle. Of course, interest rates are notoriously volatile and could tick back up on any given week.

Expert Mortgage Rate Predictions for May

Craig Berry

Branch Manager, Acopia Home Loans

Rates will moderate

"Inflation has decreased from a year ago, but it appears to have reached a standstill, and certain indicators suggest it may be on the rise once more. Recently, some Fed officials have hinted that instead of three to four rate cuts this year, one or two cuts may suffice. We may not see these cuts until later in the year. While minor fluctuations are to be expected — particularly on a week-to-week basis, unless there are significant shifts in the economy — we shouldn't see any drastic spikes or declines in rates. Mortgage rates in May will likely remain stable, similar to April's rates."

Molly Boesel

Principal Economist, CoreLogic

Rates will moderate

"The March inflation report was likely a disappointment to those hoping the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates sooner rather than later. It appears easing is still on the horizon, and with that should come a gradual decrease in the mortgage rates. For now, look for the 30-year mortgage rate to remain in the high-6% range in May."

Ralph DiBugnara

President, Home Qualified

Rates will rise

"Rates have been taking a little bit of a beating the last months because inflation is still not coming down fast enough. The last report said the Consumer Pricing Index, which measures the average cost of goods to consumers, rose 3.5% since last year — a higher than expected number and another sign inflation is still too high. This all says that there is no rate cut coming from the Fed in the next few months. Until inflation comes down the average interest rate we are seeing today will most likely be our reality. In May, I believe that will be about 7.4% on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) and 6.75% on a 15-year FRM."

Danielle Hale

Chief Economist, Realtor.com

Rates will moderate

"March's CPI report, which showed uncomfortably high price increases for a second month in the headline figures and third month in the core data, is creating a wrinkle for the Fed and investors as they contemplate the economy's path forward. The improvement in inflation observed at the end of 2023 has evaporated, bolstering the Fed's cautious approach to easing monetary policy back to a more neutral stance. I expect that we'll see mortgage rates shoot higher in late April, on the heels of concerns that inflation will prove more difficult to tame than first estimated."

Odeta Kushi

Deputy Chief Economist, First American

Rates will moderate

"Persistent inflation has dashed investor hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, which implies mortgage rates will remain 'higher-for-longer.' If inflation data between now and May continues to come in hotter than expected, and/or the Fed takes on a more hawkish tone at their upcoming meeting, we can anticipate upward pressure on mortgage rates."

Rick Sharga

CEO, CJ Patrick Company

Rates will moderate

"Momentum in the labor markets — lower unemployment and unexpectedly strong job creation — coupled with inflation that's simply not moving in the direction the Federal Reserve wants, make it unlikely that we'll see the Fed Funds Rate cut before June at the earliest. That probably means that mortgage rates will stay at or slightly above 7% through May as the market bides its time. We're not likely to see mortgage rates decline significantly until after the Fed makes its first cut; and the longer it takes for that to happen, the less likely it is that we'll see rates much below 6.5% by the end of the year."

Mortgage Rate Predictions for 2024 (Q2 Forecasts)

Housing Authority30-Year Rate Forecast (Q2 2024)
Mortgage Bankers Association6.60%
National Association of Realtors6.60%
National Association of Home Builders6.61%
Wells Fargo6.65%
Fannie Mae6.70%
Average Prediction6.63%

Current Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

Mortgage rates increased for the second consecutive week. The average 30-year fixed rate rose from 6.82% on April 4 to 6.88% on April 11. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate also grew, going from 6.06% to 6.16%. After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac — so historically speaking, there's still a good deal to be had for borrowers with strong credit.

MonthAvg. 30-Year Fixed Rate
March 20236.54%
April 20236.34%
May 20236.43%
June 20236.71%
July 20236.84%
August 20237.07%
September 20237.20%
October 20237.62%
November 20237.44%
December 20236.82%
January 20246.64%
February 20246.78%
March 20246.82%

Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage Rate Strategies for May 2024

Be Ready to Move Quickly

Although the housing market is becoming more balanced than the recent past, it still favors sellers. Buyers should get pre-approved (not pre-qualified) for their mortgage so that the seller has some certainty about the deal closing. Be ready to close quickly — a long escrow period will put you at a disadvantage.

"Taking too long to decide to make an offer can lead to paying more for the home at best and at worst to losing out on it entirely. And it's definitely not a bad idea to work with a real estate agent who has access to 'coming soon' properties, which can give a buyer a little bit of a head start competing for the limited number of homes available."

— Rick Sharga, CEO, CJ Patrick Company

Shopping Around Isn't Only for the Holidays

Since interest rates can vary drastically from day to day and from lender to lender, failing to shop around likely leads to money lost. Lenders charge different rates for different levels of credit scores.

"For potential home buyers, it's important to get quotes from multiple lenders for a mortgage, as rates can vary dramatically, especially during such a volatile period."

— Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American

Key Takeaway

Ralph DiBugnara called it straight in April 2024: with CPI running at 3.5% and no Fed cut in sight, rates were heading higher — not lower. His May prediction of 7.4% on a 30-year fixed proved prescient. The broader lesson holds today: don't wait for the perfect rate. Shop multiple lenders, get pre-approved, and be ready to move when the right home comes along.

Originally published on The Mortgage Reports by Paul Centopani · April 11, 2024.

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